Didn't mean to drop out of the conversation... familial weekend duties precluded my participation. Lots of interesting replies and micro threads continuing on since Friday. I'll make a general observation about some of what I have read so far as opposed to a specific reply to each and every post I found interesting.
Here is my general observation about the direction of a key element of this thread. While I actually found the exchange about entropy and robotic labor to be a very interesting one, it feels like that path really just puts off a different and far more meaningful conversation about the reduction of suffering and work now, under the current set of technological conditions as well as sociopolitical limitations of our current set up.
Sure, we can quibble about all the possibilities and fundamental obstacles to a Utopia taking place (and even any moral or philosophical objections), but that conversation is uninteresting to me, because of the very real public policy problems that are upon us now. As it stands now, automation and technological advancements have, functionally speaking, created the 20 and 30 hour work week for many many people in our society. But these laborers are not reaping any kind of real benefit... in fact these folks are being pushed, economically, to the fringes of our society.
There does not appear to be any type of economic/work activity immune to tech disruption, and while those disruptions are yielding great benefits to consumers as well as those with the capital to invest in said tech disruptions, its very unclear to me what path exists for the peeps laid off or work reduced to also realize the benefits given our current social contract. In our current set up, its not like folks who get laid off (or had their hours significantly reduced) because of tech will be given a huge pat on the back and told "thanks for everything, no need to make up the missed ours, feel free to now go do art, read horror fiction, play chess or badminton, or whatever leisure thing makes you happy". Nope, our collective expectation now is for these people to try and either find another full time job (that is also at risk for automation) or some how piece together 2,3, or 4 part time jobs to make up the full 40 hours they owe society.
Is that the kind of economy or society we desire to live in? Personally, I'm doing great... I project manage the roll out of BI and data science solutions for a large government entity. I won't see an AI replacement for my human decision making in my life time... but for all the medical coders that work in our health system... it is conceivable that we purchase a Deep Blue (neural network/deep learning) system that does text analysis of diagnoses notes of our doctors and then auto classifies the correct billing/medical codes. Those human jobs are NOT safe at the moment. For those of you who really don't know how easily manual labor is being replaced or will continue to be replaced, I'm just giving a very tiny in-the-weeds example of it happening, currently
What happens to those people when there is no need for them to do clerical work? Do they all just become Uber and Lyft "entrepreneurs" right up until Uber and Lyft put self-driving cars on the roads (wouldn't that just be a delightful kick in the crotch)? Or maybe they will all become amazon prime sellers... living the dream of selling baby food to the masses.
I'll just say this... in the US... both major political parties are garbage at trying to address this monumental and rapid shifting in our society. For all of our glorious championing of stellar GDP growth and extreme low levels of unemployment... for some very peculiar reason... wage growth for your average citizen continues to stagnate.
I suspect, our legislators will continue to bury their heads in the sand, throw a token million dollars or so to 'retraining' programs for Appalachian coal miners to learn how to code in python, and simply wonder out loud why the welfare/food stamp rolls are exploding. What happens after that is anyone's guess. I can't honestly say I am an anti-capitalist of any sort... I definitely see how the means of producing so much for so many has exploded in the last two hundred years using this approach... but I really have to wonder, given where things are going now and how quickly things are moving... if we need to start re-thinking some of this. It seems to me that some of our previous modes of thought on work and value to our society are bit outdated and simply don't equip us with the tools and mind set to handle this change.
I guess... my immediate question is should our society take steps now at redefining how the citizenry contributes value to our society or should we just keep letting the current dynamic continue and let the workforce get reorganized in a way that works for what seems to be a precious few? If the answer is... "nah... things have been great so far just let market forces handle this change to our workforce needs"... uh... what does the workforce look like to you in the next 10-20-30 years and are you fine with that?